The Western Conference Finals shift back to Oklahoma City tonight tied at 2-2, after the Spurs evened things up on Sunday night.
To help you find an edge on the board, our Game 5 preview breaks down the latest odds and matchup analysis before we dive into our top Spurs vs Thunder picks and player props for tonight’s game.
Spurs vs Thunder Game 5 Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel
Moneyline: Thunder (-170) | Spurs (+145)
Spread: Thunder -4.5 (-108) | Spurs +4.5 (-112)
Total: 217 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Spurs vs Thunder Game 5 Preview
While the good news out of Oklahoma City is that Jalen Williams may be due to return, they were hit with the news that Ajay Mitchell will be out due to a calf strain.
The 23-year-old has made a significant impact during this postseason run, averaging 15 points, 4.3 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game.
On the other hand, getting back Williams, who is widely considered the Thunder’s second-best player behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, would be a major boost. In the first game of this series, Williams logged 37 minutes while tallying 26 points, seven rebounds and three assists. The following game, he played just seven minutes before exiting.
If both Williams and Mitchell are out, it would certainly be a blow to OKC’s roster and its chances of winning this game, as evidenced in their 103-82 Game 4 loss where both players were absent. However, as long as one of them is available, I believe the Thunder have a great chance to respond with a win and cover.
Oklahoma City has the deepest roster of reliable contributors in the league, which is a large reason why it won the Larry O’Brien Trophy last year and why it finds itself in a strong position to repeat.
Throughout this postseason, the Thunder are averaging a league-best 42.2 bench points per game, while the Spurs are putting up 32 points from their reserves each contest.
That’s a massive discrepancy, and one that becomes even more crucial in the playoffs. When you factor that in alongside the home-court advantage in Oklahoma City, it’s hard to go against the Thunder.
It feels like people keep looking for reasons to fade the Thunder any chance they get simply because they want to see them fail. If anything, we should be relishing the opportunity to lay a shorter spread with the best team in the league.
Spurs vs Thunder Picks
I’ve got a pair of props that stand out for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.
Let’s begin with Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox, who I’m expecting to go over 23.5 combined points, rebounds and assists on Tuesday night. Through this series, he’s averaging 13.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists, putting him comfortably above this number.
Now, to be transparent, those averages come from just a two-game sample size, and it’s clear Fox is a bit hobbled, which is likely why this number is being offered at such a favorable spot. Even so, I still believe this is a great opportunity to capitalize. Fox isn’t going to suit up if he can’t contribute, so if he’s active, we should also expect him to play more than 30 minutes and make meaningful contributions across these key statistical categories.
Fox has gone over this mark in 10 of his 13 postseason games, and I’m willing to bank on him doing so again in Game 5.
Additionally, I’ll be taking the over on Jared McCain’s rebounding prop tonight. Following Game 1, in which McCain logged just 18 minutes, he’s seen a massive uptick in playing time. Naturally, that’s due not only to the absences of teammates Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, but also because of his efficiency and overall potential.
We saw that potential on full display in Game 3, when McCain exploded for 24 points on 47.6% shooting from the field. However, what stands out most to me regarding his props is the rebounding line, which is sitting at only 2.5.
In Game 1, despite playing just 18 minutes, he grabbed two rebounds. He then collected six in Game 2, four in Game 3 and two more in the previous game.
Given the roster shakeup for OKC, McCain is going to be relied upon for meaningful minutes again, yet this prop line still hasn’t moved. Every postseason game is important, but Game 5 with the series tied 2-2 carries even more weight. This could turn into a heightened defensive battle that leads to tighter nerves and more missed shots, which would create additional rebounding opportunities for McCain.
Even if there are still plenty of points scored, getting a player projected to log 25-plus minutes at just 2.5 rebounds feels like strong value already.
Spurs vs Thunder Picks
- De’Aaron Fox Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105 at Lucky Rebel)
- Jared McCain over 2.5 Rebounds (-113 at Lucky Rebel)
NBA Record: 226-181-1 (+22.55 units)
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